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Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-11-29T13:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16156/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-02T09:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 20201129T1442
Radial velocity (km/s):2140.90
Longitude (deg):-13.5000
Latitude (deg):-7.70000
Half-angular width (deg):47.5000

Notes:

Lead Time: -0.37 hour(s)
Difference: -12.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by RWC Jeju (KSWC) on 2020-12-01T21:22Z

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